Tariffs, Trailers & Tender Rejections: What's Moving Freight in May.

International Shipping Surge

A 90-day tariff truce between the U.S. and China, effective May 12, 2025, is already shaking up global logistics. Importers are rushing to capitalize on the policy window, sparking a sharp spike in ocean volumes and container rates.
This isn't business as usual-it's a signal that peak season may come earlier and hotter than expected.

Ocean Shipping Rebounds on Tariff Pause

Rate Jumps:

• 20-ft containers (Shanghai to Long Beach): $2,300 (up 27.8% from April)
• 40-ft containers: $2,900 (up 31.8% )

Shippers are racing to move goods ahead of potential policy reversals. Carriers are tightening space and raising rates in response.

Diversifying Gateways

While China still leads as the largest source of inbound TEUs to the U.S., volumes have dropped significantly YoY. Meanwhile, other countries are gaining ground:

• Thailand: +55.35% YoY
• Vietnam: +27.59% YoY
• Germany: +22.84% YoY

These shifts signal broader diversification in sourcing beyond China-a trend accelerated by trade friction and supply chain resilience planning.

Trucking Ripple Effect

Ocean transit times average ~30 days, meaning the trucking sector will start to feel the effects by early July-right in time for the 4th of July freight peak. Brokers and carriers should expect rate pressure and tighter capacity just as summer promotions hit full swing.

Class 8 Truck Orders Hit a Wall

While ocean freight surges, new truck orders continue their dramatic fall. April was particularly harsh:

• New truck orders: 7,400 units (down 54% YoY)
• Sales: 18,078 units (down 8.7% YoY)
• Freightliner: Maintains 36.2% market share, outperforming competitors

OEMs are pumping the brakes as demand cools.

Used Market Snapshot

On the flip side, the used truck market is showing mixed signals:

• Retail sales: +8.6% MoM
• Auction sales: -57%

While some fleets are still buying, many are holding off or opting for the secondary market instead of investing in new equipment.

Trailer Orders Defy the Trend

March saw strong performance in the trailer sector, bucking the downward trend in tractors:

• ~21,200 units ordered
• +21% MoM | +63% YoY

This indicates fleets are expanding trailer capacity, either for drop-and-hook operations or to handle seasonal freight surges without committing to new drivers or power units.

Freight Rate Outlook: Capacity Tightens Ahead of Peak

As produce season takes hold, freight rates are climbing steadily. The National Truckload Index (NTI) is holding at $2.23/mi and trending upward.

Rejections Signal Spot Market Pressure

The Van Outbound Tender Rejection Index (VOTRI) is also rising, now at 5.44-well above this time in 2022 and 2023. This means contracted carriers are rejecting more freight, pushing volume into the spot market.

Higher rejections = tighter capacity = potential for sustained rate spikes through the summer.

Southern Produce Is Powering Regional Markets

Southern U.S. regions are heating up with seasonal produce freight. Melons, in particular, are showing strong activity:

• 100+ active loads
• ~$300,000 in gross revenue

This is driving a localized boom in reefer and dry van markets across Texas, Georgia, and Florida. Regional carriers are taking advantage of short-haul, high-yield lanes.

Bonus Insight: Mode Share and Market Activity

New visual data reveals further insight into freight movement by mode and region. This snapshot gives a clear breakdown of truckload, intermodal, and LTL market share trends. For brokers and shippers, this type of breakdown is essential in identifying which freight paths are growing more competitive.

This data supports the broader trend: truckload activity is trending upward, while intermodal has flattened out, signaling a continued preference for flexible OTR options during periods of high demand.

May is proving to be a turning point month: international freight is heating up, domestic equipment sales are cooling, and summer peak season is on the horizon.

What to Watch:

• Continued rise in ocean TEUs arriving in late June
• Spot rate pressure increasing across major van lanes
• Trailer demand holding steady despite OEM slowdowns
• Southern produce volumes boosting localized freight markets

May is more than a warm-up-it's a signal flare. Ocean rates are up, trailers are moving, and tender rejections are climbing. Carriers who act early will ride the July wave. The rest? They'll be playing catch-up.
Plan now. Scale smart. And stay ahead of the freight curve.