Class 8 Truck Orders Hit Post-Pandemic Low as Industry Faces Tariff Pressure and Market Uncertainty

Class 8 truck orders just hit their lowest point since the early pandemic. With only 7,400-7,600 new trucks ordered in April, the industry is flashing warning lights-from tariffs to financing fatigue, uncertainty is steering the market into neutral.

Class 8 Orders Plunge

According to preliminary figures from both FTR Transportation Intelligence and ACT Research, net orders for North American Class 8 trucks in April 2025 came in at just:

• FTR: 7,400 units (54% month-over-month and year-over-year)
• ACT: 7,600 units, also reflecting sharp double-digit declines

These numbers are well below the 7-year April average of 18,963 units, and down 30% year-to-date compared to 2024.

"New and pending U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs will significantly increase costs for Class 8 trucks, tractors, and related components," said FTR Senior Analyst Dan Moyer.

In the chart above, April's order volumes (shown in bright green) underscore how steep the drop-off has been compared to 2024 (blue line). It's a continuation of a downward trend that began in January and has yet to show signs of bottoming out.

Long-Term Order Trends: A Steady Decline

The second chart provides a broader perspective, showing Class 8 net orders from 2020 to April 2025. It's easy to spot the highs of post-COVID recovery in 2021 and 2022 - and the steady decline since late 2023. April's 7,600 units represent a 52% year-over-year drop, highlighting the industry's current volatility.

Even seasonally adjusted (SA) orders are tracking below 9,000 units, suggesting that fleet confidence is waning. And the issue isn't just declining orders - both ACT and FTR also report a recent spike in order cancellations, pointing to more than just caution… it's full-on hesitation.

5 Reasons Fleets Are Hitting Pause

Several overlapping forces are driving this downturn in new truck demand:

1. Tariff Tensions
   Uncertainty around U.S. trade policies and potential retaliatory tariffs is spooking buyers. Many manufacturers expect part costs to rise sharply, which inflates final truck pricing and cuts into margins.
2. Used Truck Surplus
   Used truck prices dropped sharply after peaking during COVID. With decent-condition models now more affordable, fleets are opting to delay purchases of new $180K-$200K trucks.
3. Backlogs & Delivery Delays
   Order backlogs from 2022-2023 are still being worked through, meaning some carriers are still receiving trucks ordered 12-18 months ago, reducing urgency for new equipment.
4. Freight Market Weakness
   Spot rates remain soft, and freight volumes have dipped across several sectors. Without strong market incentives, small and mid-sized carriers are hitting pause on capital spending.
5. Financing Fatigue
   High interest rates are adding another layer of cost. For many operators, the monthly payment on a new truck just doesn't pencil out - especially if rates are upwards of 8-9%.

What's Next?

Short term? It's unlikely we'll see a major recovery before Q3 unless interest rates drop or trade policy stabilizes. Here's what analysts are watching:

• Used truck prices are expected to stay flat or soften, especially as more inventory enters the market.
• New truck prices may rise slightly due to parts inflation and regulatory compliance costs - though demand is keeping pricing pressure in check.
• EPA 2027 regulations are on the horizon, and that could trigger a pre-buy boom if market confidence improves.

"With repair costs up, a weak resale market, and a murky tariff outlook, most carriers are playing it safe for now," said one ACT analyst.

Key Takeaways

• April 2025 Class 8 orders dropped to ~7,600 units - lowest since May 2020
• Down 54% YoY and MoM, with a 30% decline year-to-date
• Order cancellations are rising, reflecting low fleet confidence
• Used trucks remain attractive vs. new equipment
• Tariffs, financing rates, and regulatory uncertainty continue to cloud forecasts

Fleet strategy in 2025 isn't about expansion-it's about positioning. The smart players aren't sitting idle; they're watching interest rates, holding cash, and prepping for a smarter Q3.
Want to lead that shift? Stay tuned-because the next freight upswing will reward those ready to move.